Iceland’s Strategic Wake-Up Call: AMOC Collapse as a National Security Threat

 

Understanding the AMOC: The Climate’s Oceanic Conveyor Belt

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a foundational component of the Earth’s climate system. This deep-ocean circulation transports warm, salty surface waters from the tropics northward, where they cool, sink, and return at depth toward the tropics, forming a global-scale “conveyor belt.” Its operation regulates regional climates—especially in Europe—and stabilizes rainfall patterns around the world.

When the AMOC weakens or halts, the repercussions could be profound: Europe could experience long, bitter winters; tropical and subtropical rainfall belts could shift; and sea-level changes could cascade.

Why Iceland Is Raising the Alarm: A National Security Perspective

• Iceland’s Climate Minister, Jóhann Páll Jóhannsson, has formally described a potential AMOC collapse as an existential threat, now elevated to its National Security Council. 

• The minister stated the move is driven by a risk assessment that spans food security, energy resilience, infrastructure stability, and international transportation. 

• In governmental planning, the Icelandic authorities are coordinating across ministries to develop a disaster-preparedness framework, in case the worst-case climate scenario materializes. 

The Scientific Alarm Bells: Is AMOC Nearing a Tipping Point?

Recent Evidence of Instability

• Observational data and climate models are now showing warning signals: according to a 2025 preprint, AMOC stability may be declining, indicating an approaching tipping point. 

• The decline appears especially in the subpolar North Atlantic, where fresh water from ice melt reduces water density, impairing the ability for water to sink and drive the AMOC. 

• On the other hand, not all models are in full agreement. Some research suggests that while Greenland meltwater weakens the AMOC, the collapse may not be as abrupt or irreversible as previously feared. 

Probability of Collapse

• A major study published in 2025 indicates that the risk of AMOC collapse is no longer negligible. Under high emissions, models show a 70% chance; under moderate emissions, 37%, and even under low emissions, 25%, suggesting the tipping risk is significantly underappreciated.

• However, more conservative projections from other scientists argue that a total shutdown this century is unlikely, though a substantial weakening remains probable. 

Global and Regional Impacts: More Than Just a Nordic Threat

If the AMOC were to collapse or severely weaken, the consequences would extend far beyond Iceland:

• Northern Europe: Drastically colder winters, heavy snowfall, longer freeze periods. 

• Global Rainfall Patterns: Shifts in tropical rain belts could imperil agriculture in regions like Africa, India, and South America. 

• Antarctic Ice Melt: Some studies warn that a disrupted AMOC could accelerate warming and ice loss in Antarctica. 

• Sea-Level Effects: Changes in water circulation can contribute to complex regional sea-level responses, affecting coastal communities.

Iceland’s Preparedness Strategy

We recognize Iceland’s proactive steps as unprecedented. Key elements of their strategy include:

1. Elevating Climate Risk to Security Risk

   • By framing AMOC collapse as a security issue, Iceland ensures cross-ministerial and long-term planning at the highest levels. 

2. Disaster-Readiness Framework

   • Assessing infrastructure resilience, food and energy security, and transport logistics to prepare for sudden climate shocks. 

3. Scientific Deepening

   • Investing in research and collaborating with international experts to better model and monitor AMOC stability. 

4. International Cooperation

   • Engaging with Nordic neighbors and global partners: Norway, Ireland, and the UK are already increasing their research into tipping-point risks.

Risk Management and Policy Implications

From a strategic standpoint, Iceland’s decision signals a broader shift in how countries must treat long-term climate risks:

• Tipping Point Governance: As climate tipping elements like the AMOC become more plausible, nations must integrate them into security planning, not just environmental policy.

• Accelerated Mitigation: The elevated risk underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Without mitigation, the window to prevent destabilization narrows.

• Adaptation Strategy: Governments must prepare not just for warming, but for complex, high-risk climate disruptions—sometimes counterintuitive ones like extreme cooling.

• Global Collaboration: Given the transboundary nature of AMOC impacts, policy and research collaboration at the regional and international level become non-negotiable.

Conclusion: A Strategic Precedent

Iceland’s elevation of a climate-system risk to a security risk marks a paradigm shift: we are witnessing a state not just preparing for warming, but for a possible climate tipping point. While scientific questions remain — especially around timing and reversibility — the potential costs of inaction are too vast. Iceland’s approach may well become a blueprint for other nations vulnerable to non-linear climate threats.