Introduction
On 19 October 2025, the fragile truce between Hamas and Gaza Strip on one side, and Israel on the other, widely viewed as the first meaningful cessation after nearly two years of war, encountered its first major stress test. The dynamics are layered: allegations of cease-fire breaches, resumed air-attacks, a halt to humanitarian aid, and the stalled handover of hostages and bodies all converged. In this analysis, we walk through what triggered the breakdown, the mechanics of the deal, how both sides responded, and what the implications are for next-phase negotiations.
The Ceasefire Architecture: What Was Agreed
Key Elements of the Agreement
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The truce entered around early October and was brokered by the Donald Trump administration along with Egypt and Qatar.
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Among the main provisions: the release of all remaining living hostages held by Hamas in exchange for the release of a large number of Palestinian prisoners by Israel.
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Obligations on Israel’s side included a cessation of major offensive operations in Gaza and easing of humanitarian aid access, including reopening crossings such as Rafah Crossing.
For Hamas and Gaza-governance, future phases included disarmament of Hamas, Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, and establishment of a technocratic Palestinian body to govern.
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Why It Matters
The deal represented a rare diplomatic opening after years of conflict. Stability here would not only relieve humanitarian calamities in Gaza but also mark a shift toward a post-war political architecture. Conversely, failure risks a renewal of large-scale hostilities.
The Trigger: What Broke the Calm
Incident in Rafah & Israeli Response
On 19 October, the Israeli military reported that two of its soldiers were killed after being targeted in the Rafah area of southern Gaza. According to Israel, these troops “came under fire” and a missile attack from militants in an area still under Israeli-accessible territory.
In response, Israel launched a series of air-strikes and what it described as “a massive and extensive wave of strikes” on Hamas targets in Gaza.
Humanitarian & Aid Impacts
Israel temporarily halted the flow of aid trucks into Gaza, citing the cease-fire violation. The Rafah Crossing, critical for humanitarian access and movement, was closed pending Hamas’s fulfilment of body-handover obligations. 1 According to Gaza’s authorities, at least 36 Palestinians — including children and women — were killed in Israeli strikes that day.
Refusal of Blame & Competing Narratives
Hamas denied responsibility for the attack, saying its communications with units in Rafah had been cut, making it impossible for it to direct or sanction the incident. Meanwhile, Gaza’s media office accused Israel of violating the cease-fire 47 times since its inception, causing 38 deaths.
Why the Ceasefire Didn’t Collapse Immediately
Commitments Still in Place
Despite the violence, both sides declared that the cease-fire remained technically valid. The Israeli Defence Forces said that they were “resuming enforcement” of the truce. The United States publically supported the deal, with President Trump asserting the truce “remains in place”.
Aid deliveries were scheduled to resume the next day after the halt, helping de-escalate the humanitarian pressure.
Shared Interest and Flashpoints Alike
From Israel’s perspective, a return to full-scale war would carry high diplomatic and economic cost — especially given global scrutiny of Gaza’s humanitarian situation. From Hamas’s side, despite internal challenges, maintaining some semblance of truce gives them breathing room and international legitimacy. These overlapping incentives created a buffer.
Hostages, Bodies & Border Crossings
One of the most volatile elements is the exchange of dead and living hostages. Israel insists on full hand-over of 28 deceased hostages before reopening Rafah and relaxing aid restrictions. Hamas has so far turned over some bodies but insists challenges remain, especially bodies under rubble and inaccessible due to Israeli control.
Aid access and border crossings – especially the Rafah crossing with Egypt – remain conditionally open. Israel uses these as leverage. Delays generate humanitarian risk and increase the chance of renewed escalation.
Disarmament & Governance of Gaza
The longer-term architecture of the truce includes the demilitarisation of Hamas and establishment of a technocratic governance body for Gaza. These items are contentious: Israel demands irreversible weakening of Hamas; Hamas counters it will not cede power and insists on representation of Palestinian leadership.
The tunnel networks and military infrastructure of Hamas are still intact — Israeli leaders refer to them as “major weapons” that must be destroyed if the truce is to hold.
Monitoring & Enforcement Mechanisms
A cease-fire is only meaningful if violations are promptly addressed and reconciled. At present, the mechanisms for monitoring and adjudicating breaches are weak. The incident in Rafah shows how local skirmishes can rapidly threaten the entire deal. Ambiguities over jurisdiction, “yellow-lines”, and control zones complicate enforcement.
Implications: What Happens Next
Worst-Case Scenario: Return to Large-Scale Conflict
If hostilities continue unchecked, humanitarian aid remains blocked, and border crossings stay closed, then the truce could collapse and full-scale war resume. The trigger might simply be a small incident that escalates — as we have now seen. Gaza’s conditions (famine, displacement, infrastructure collapse) make the risk acute.
Best-Case Scenario: Stabilisation and Transition to Phase Two
If the current incident is contained, aid resumes, and next-phase talks begin in earnest, the truce may hold. Key steps: completion of hostage/bodies exchange, opening of Rafah crossing, phased Israeli withdrawal, and start of restructuring Gaza governance. In such a case, the cease-fire might serve as a foundation for longer-term peace.
Key Indicators to Watch
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Number and nature of reported cease-fire violations (by both sides)
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Progress in returning deceased hostages and hostages still alive
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Status of Rafah crossing and humanitarian aid delivery volumes
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Movement on governance negotiations and disarmament frameworks
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Internal Palestinian dynamics in Gaza (Hamas vs rival groups) and Israeli political consensus
Conclusion
The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has passed a crucial test — but only just. The Rafah incident and subsequent Israeli strikes exposed how fragile the arrangement remains. While both parties have reaffirmed the deal, it is clear that significant underlying issues — hostages, bodies, disarmament, aid access, governance — remain unresolved. The truce still holds because it aligns with the interests of both sides for now, but without swift progress on the roadmap ahead, it risks collapsing. The coming weeks will be pivotal for determining whether this pause becomes a foundation for a durable settlement or a prelude to further war.
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